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Complexity in Economics
Complex dynamics in economics arise from nonlinear systems that do not converge to a fixed point, a limit cycle, or explode or implode exponentially due to endogenous factors. They arise from cybernetics, catastrophe theory, chaos theory, or the varieties of modern complexity theory, including models with heterogeneous, interacting agents. This major three-volume collection presents the most important papers in the area of complexity in economics.
More Information
Critical Acclaim
Contributors
Contents
More Information
Complex dynamics in economics arise from nonlinear systems that do not converge to a fixed point, a limit cycle, or explode or implode exponentially due to endogenous factors. They arise from cybernetics, catastrophe theory, chaos theory, or the varieties of modern complexity theory, including models with heterogeneous, interacting agents. This major three-volume collection presents the most important papers in the area of complexity in economics.
Topics include: Volume I: Philosophical and Methodological Overviews; Social Interactions and Learning Dynamics; Competitive Market Dynamics; Dynamics of Imperfect Competition; Volume II: Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Growth; Financial Markets; International and Transition Economic Dynamics; Volume III: Urban and Regional Systems; Evolutionary Economic Dynamics; and Ecologic-Economic Systems.
Complexity in Economics is an authoritative and invaluable reference source for all those with an interest in this area.
Topics include: Volume I: Philosophical and Methodological Overviews; Social Interactions and Learning Dynamics; Competitive Market Dynamics; Dynamics of Imperfect Competition; Volume II: Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Growth; Financial Markets; International and Transition Economic Dynamics; Volume III: Urban and Regional Systems; Evolutionary Economic Dynamics; and Ecologic-Economic Systems.
Complexity in Economics is an authoritative and invaluable reference source for all those with an interest in this area.
Critical Acclaim
‘The recognition of the importance of complex systems in physics and biology has led to their study in economic systems, usually characterized as governed by a large set of interacting nonlinear dynamic systems. It is clear that these phenomena are observable and are not necessarily inconsistent with standard economic reasoning. Professor Rosser has collected a large number of papers, some from not-easily-accessible sources, which show the application of complex system theory to a variety of economic phenomena. This collection will be invaluable to the development of new and necessary thinking in economics.’
– Kenneth J. Arrow, Stanford University, US
– Kenneth J. Arrow, Stanford University, US
Contributors
65 articles, dating from 1953 to 2002
Contributors include: J. Arifovic, W.B. Arthur, R. Axtell, W.A. Brock, R.H. Day, S.N. Durlauf, D.K. Foley, A. Kirman, T.C. Schelling, H.A. Simon
Contributors include: J. Arifovic, W.B. Arthur, R. Axtell, W.A. Brock, R.H. Day, S.N. Durlauf, D.K. Foley, A. Kirman, T.C. Schelling, H.A. Simon
Contents
Contents:
Volume I: Methodology, Interacting Agents and Microeconomic Models
Acknowledgements
Introduction J. Barkley Rosser, Jr.
PART I PHILOSOPHICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL OVERVIEWS
1. Herbert A. Simon (1962), ‘The Architecture of Complexity’
2. Peter S. Albin (1982), ‘The Metalogic of Economic Predictions, Calculations and Propositions’
3. Don Lavoie (1989), ‘Economic Chaos or Spontaneous Order? Implications for Political Economy of the New View of Science’
4. J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (1999), ‘On the Complexities of Complex Economic Dynamics’
PART II SOCIAL INTERACTIONS AND LEARNING DYNAMICS
5. Hans Föllmer (1974), ‘Random Economies with Many Interacting Agents’
6. Lawrence E. Blume (1993), ‘The Statistical Mechanics of Strategic Interaction’
7. Alan Kirman (1993), ‘Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment’
8. William A. Brock and Cars H. Hommes (1997), ‘A Rational Route to Randomness’
9. Ken Kollman, John H. Miller and Scott E. Page (1997), ‘Political Institutions and Sorting in a Tiebout Model’
10. Jean-Michel Grandmont (1998), ‘Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems’
11. Cars Hommes and Gerhard Sorger (1998), ‘Consistent Expectations Equilibria’
12. Georg C. Hartmann and Otto E. Rossler (1998), ‘Coupled Flare Attractors – A Discrete Prototype for Economic Modelling’
13. William A. Brock and Steven N. Durlauf (2001), ‘Discrete Choice with Social Interactions’
PART III COMPETITIVE MARKET DYNAMICS
14. Mark Granovetter and Roland Soong (1986), ‘Threshold Models of Interpersonal Effects in Consumer Demand’
15. Carl Chiarella (1988), ‘The Cobweb Model: Its Instability and the Onset of Chaos’
16. Duncan K. Foley (1994), ‘A Statistical Equilibrium Theory of Markets’
17. Donald Saari (1995), ‘Mathematical Complexity of Simple Economics’
18. Jacob K. Goeree, Cars Hommes and Claus Weddepohl (1998), ‘Stability and Complex Dynamics in a Discrete Tâtonnement Model’
PART IV DYNAMICS OF IMPERFECT COMPETITION
19. David Rand (1978), ‘Exotic Phenomena in Games and Duopoly Models’
20. G. Bonanno (1987), ‘Monopoly Equilibria and Catastrophe Theory’
21. T. Puu (1991), ‘Chaos in Duopoly Pricing’
22. Michael Kopel (1996), ‘Simple and Complex Adjustment Dynamics in Cournot Duopoly Models’
23. Gian Italo Bischi, Laura Gardini and Michael Kopel (2000), ‘Analysis of Global Bifurcations in a Market Share Attraction Model’
24. Robert L. Axtell (2001), ‘Zipf Distribution of U.S. Firm Sizes’
25. Robert L. Axtell (2002), ‘Non-Cooperative Dynamics of Multi-Agent Teams’
Name Index
Volume II: Macroeconomics, Financial Markets and International Economics
Acknowledgements
An introduction by the editor to all three volumes appears in Volume I
PART I MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS AND GROWTH
1. R.H. Strotz, J.C. McAnulty and J.B. Naines, Jr. (1953), ‘Goodwin’s Nonlinear Theory of the Business Cycle: An Electro-Analog Solution’
2. Jay W. Forrester (1977), ‘Growth Cycles’
3. Hal R. Varian (1979), ‘Catastrophe Theory and the Business Cycle’
4. Hans-Walter Lorenz (1992), ‘Multiple Attractors, Complex Basin Boundaries, and Transient Motion in Deterministic Economic Systems’
5. Per Bak, Kan Chen, José Scheinkman and Michael Woodford (1993), ‘Aggregrate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks: Self-organized Criticality in a Model of Production and Inventory Dynamics’
6. Steven N. Durlauf (1993), ‘Nonergodic Economic Growth’
7. Masanao Aoki (1995), ‘Economic Fluctuations with Interactive Agents: Dynamic and Stochastic Externalities’
8. Leo Kaas (1998), ‘Stabilizing Chaos in a Dynamic Macroeconomic Model’
PART II FINANCIAL MARKETS
9. E.C. Zeeman (1974), ‘On the Unstable Behaviour of Stock Exchanges’
10. Richard H. Day and Weihong Huang (1990), ‘Bulls, Bears and Market Sheep’
11. Michael Stutzer (1994), ‘The Statistical Mechanics of Asset Prices’
12. W. Brian Arthur, John H. Holland, Blake LeBaron, Richard Palmer and Paul Tayler (1997), ‘Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market’
13. Shu-Heng Chen, Thomas Lux and Michele Marchesi (2001), ‘Testing for Non-linear Structure in an Artificial Financial Market’
14. Laurent Calvet and Adlai Fisher (2001), ‘Forecasting Multifractal Volatility’
PART III INTERNATIONAL AND TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIC DYNAMICS
15. Paul Krugman (1984), ‘The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect’
16. Jasmina Arifovic (1996), ‘The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies’
17. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Marina Vcherashnaya Rosser (1997), ‘Complex Dynamics and Systemic Change: How Things Can Go Very Wrong’
18. James B. Ramsey and Zhifeng Zhang (1997), ‘The Analysis of Foreign Exchange Data Using Waveform Dictionaries’
19. Richard E. Baldwin, Philippe Martin and Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano (2001), ‘Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs’
20. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., Marina Vcherashnaya Rosser, Stephen J. Guastello and Robert W. Bond, Jr. (2001), ‘Chaotic Hysteresis and Systemic Economic Transformation: Soviet Investment Patterns’
21. Paul De Grauwe and Marianna Grimaldi (2002), ‘Complexity in the Foreign Exchange Market’
Name Index
Volume III: Urban-Economic Models, Evolutionary Economics and Ecologic-Economic Systems
Acknowledgements
An introduction by the editor to all three volumes appears in Volume I
PART I URBAN AND REGIONAL SYSTEMS
1. Thomas C. Schelling (1971), ‘Dynamic Models of Segregation’
2. Tönu Puu (1981), ‘Catastrophic Structural Change in a Continuous Regional Model’
3. Peter M. Allen, Guy Engelen and Michele Sanglier (1986), ‘Towards a General Dynamic Model of the Spatial Evolution of Urban Systems’
4. Wolfgang Weidlich and Günter Haag (1987), ‘A Dynamic Phase Transition Model for Spatial Agglomeration Processes’
5. Paul Krugman (1997), ‘How the Economy Organizes Itself in Space: A Survey of the New Economic Geography’
6. Masahisa Fujita, Paul Krugman and Tomoya Mori (1999), ‘On the Evolution of Hierarchical Urban Systems’
PART II EVOLUTIONARY ECONOMIC DYNAMICS
7. Richard M. Goodwin (1986), ‘The Economy as an Evolutionary Pulsator’
8. W. Brian Arthur (1989), ‘Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-in by Historical Events’
9. Richard H. Day and Jean-Luc Walter (1989), ‘Economic Growth in the Very Long Run: On the Multiple-phase Interaction of Population, Technology, and Social Infrastructure’
10. Dean Foster and Peyton Young (1990), ‘Stochastic Evolutionary Game Dynamics’
11. Kristian Lindgren (1997), ‘Evolutionary Dynamics in Game-Theoretic Models’
12. Ken Binmore and Larry Samuelson (1999), ‘Evolutionary Drift and Equilibrium Selection’
PART III ECOLOGIC-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
13. Dixon D. Jones and Carl J. Walters (1976), ‘Catastrophe Theory and Fisheries Regulation’
14. James E. Conklin and William C. Kolberg (1994), ‘Chaos For the Halibut?’
15. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., Carl Folke, Folke Günther, Heikki Isomaki, Charles Perrings and Tönu Puu (1994), ‘Discontinuous Change in Multilevel Hierarchical Systems’
16. Gardner Brown and Jonathan Roughgarden (1995), ‘An Ecological Economy: Notes on Harvest and Growth’
17. Zhiqi Chen (1997), ‘Can Economic Activities Lead to Climate Chaos? An Economic Analysis on Global Warming’
18. S.R. Carpenter, D. Ludwig and W.A. Brock (1999), ‘Management of Eutrophication for Lakes Subject to Potentially Irreversible Change’
19. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. (2001), ‘Complex Ecologic-Economic Dynamics and Environmental Policy’
Name Index
Volume I: Methodology, Interacting Agents and Microeconomic Models
Acknowledgements
Introduction J. Barkley Rosser, Jr.
PART I PHILOSOPHICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL OVERVIEWS
1. Herbert A. Simon (1962), ‘The Architecture of Complexity’
2. Peter S. Albin (1982), ‘The Metalogic of Economic Predictions, Calculations and Propositions’
3. Don Lavoie (1989), ‘Economic Chaos or Spontaneous Order? Implications for Political Economy of the New View of Science’
4. J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (1999), ‘On the Complexities of Complex Economic Dynamics’
PART II SOCIAL INTERACTIONS AND LEARNING DYNAMICS
5. Hans Föllmer (1974), ‘Random Economies with Many Interacting Agents’
6. Lawrence E. Blume (1993), ‘The Statistical Mechanics of Strategic Interaction’
7. Alan Kirman (1993), ‘Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment’
8. William A. Brock and Cars H. Hommes (1997), ‘A Rational Route to Randomness’
9. Ken Kollman, John H. Miller and Scott E. Page (1997), ‘Political Institutions and Sorting in a Tiebout Model’
10. Jean-Michel Grandmont (1998), ‘Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems’
11. Cars Hommes and Gerhard Sorger (1998), ‘Consistent Expectations Equilibria’
12. Georg C. Hartmann and Otto E. Rossler (1998), ‘Coupled Flare Attractors – A Discrete Prototype for Economic Modelling’
13. William A. Brock and Steven N. Durlauf (2001), ‘Discrete Choice with Social Interactions’
PART III COMPETITIVE MARKET DYNAMICS
14. Mark Granovetter and Roland Soong (1986), ‘Threshold Models of Interpersonal Effects in Consumer Demand’
15. Carl Chiarella (1988), ‘The Cobweb Model: Its Instability and the Onset of Chaos’
16. Duncan K. Foley (1994), ‘A Statistical Equilibrium Theory of Markets’
17. Donald Saari (1995), ‘Mathematical Complexity of Simple Economics’
18. Jacob K. Goeree, Cars Hommes and Claus Weddepohl (1998), ‘Stability and Complex Dynamics in a Discrete Tâtonnement Model’
PART IV DYNAMICS OF IMPERFECT COMPETITION
19. David Rand (1978), ‘Exotic Phenomena in Games and Duopoly Models’
20. G. Bonanno (1987), ‘Monopoly Equilibria and Catastrophe Theory’
21. T. Puu (1991), ‘Chaos in Duopoly Pricing’
22. Michael Kopel (1996), ‘Simple and Complex Adjustment Dynamics in Cournot Duopoly Models’
23. Gian Italo Bischi, Laura Gardini and Michael Kopel (2000), ‘Analysis of Global Bifurcations in a Market Share Attraction Model’
24. Robert L. Axtell (2001), ‘Zipf Distribution of U.S. Firm Sizes’
25. Robert L. Axtell (2002), ‘Non-Cooperative Dynamics of Multi-Agent Teams’
Name Index
Volume II: Macroeconomics, Financial Markets and International Economics
Acknowledgements
An introduction by the editor to all three volumes appears in Volume I
PART I MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS AND GROWTH
1. R.H. Strotz, J.C. McAnulty and J.B. Naines, Jr. (1953), ‘Goodwin’s Nonlinear Theory of the Business Cycle: An Electro-Analog Solution’
2. Jay W. Forrester (1977), ‘Growth Cycles’
3. Hal R. Varian (1979), ‘Catastrophe Theory and the Business Cycle’
4. Hans-Walter Lorenz (1992), ‘Multiple Attractors, Complex Basin Boundaries, and Transient Motion in Deterministic Economic Systems’
5. Per Bak, Kan Chen, José Scheinkman and Michael Woodford (1993), ‘Aggregrate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks: Self-organized Criticality in a Model of Production and Inventory Dynamics’
6. Steven N. Durlauf (1993), ‘Nonergodic Economic Growth’
7. Masanao Aoki (1995), ‘Economic Fluctuations with Interactive Agents: Dynamic and Stochastic Externalities’
8. Leo Kaas (1998), ‘Stabilizing Chaos in a Dynamic Macroeconomic Model’
PART II FINANCIAL MARKETS
9. E.C. Zeeman (1974), ‘On the Unstable Behaviour of Stock Exchanges’
10. Richard H. Day and Weihong Huang (1990), ‘Bulls, Bears and Market Sheep’
11. Michael Stutzer (1994), ‘The Statistical Mechanics of Asset Prices’
12. W. Brian Arthur, John H. Holland, Blake LeBaron, Richard Palmer and Paul Tayler (1997), ‘Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market’
13. Shu-Heng Chen, Thomas Lux and Michele Marchesi (2001), ‘Testing for Non-linear Structure in an Artificial Financial Market’
14. Laurent Calvet and Adlai Fisher (2001), ‘Forecasting Multifractal Volatility’
PART III INTERNATIONAL AND TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIC DYNAMICS
15. Paul Krugman (1984), ‘The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect’
16. Jasmina Arifovic (1996), ‘The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies’
17. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Marina Vcherashnaya Rosser (1997), ‘Complex Dynamics and Systemic Change: How Things Can Go Very Wrong’
18. James B. Ramsey and Zhifeng Zhang (1997), ‘The Analysis of Foreign Exchange Data Using Waveform Dictionaries’
19. Richard E. Baldwin, Philippe Martin and Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano (2001), ‘Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs’
20. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., Marina Vcherashnaya Rosser, Stephen J. Guastello and Robert W. Bond, Jr. (2001), ‘Chaotic Hysteresis and Systemic Economic Transformation: Soviet Investment Patterns’
21. Paul De Grauwe and Marianna Grimaldi (2002), ‘Complexity in the Foreign Exchange Market’
Name Index
Volume III: Urban-Economic Models, Evolutionary Economics and Ecologic-Economic Systems
Acknowledgements
An introduction by the editor to all three volumes appears in Volume I
PART I URBAN AND REGIONAL SYSTEMS
1. Thomas C. Schelling (1971), ‘Dynamic Models of Segregation’
2. Tönu Puu (1981), ‘Catastrophic Structural Change in a Continuous Regional Model’
3. Peter M. Allen, Guy Engelen and Michele Sanglier (1986), ‘Towards a General Dynamic Model of the Spatial Evolution of Urban Systems’
4. Wolfgang Weidlich and Günter Haag (1987), ‘A Dynamic Phase Transition Model for Spatial Agglomeration Processes’
5. Paul Krugman (1997), ‘How the Economy Organizes Itself in Space: A Survey of the New Economic Geography’
6. Masahisa Fujita, Paul Krugman and Tomoya Mori (1999), ‘On the Evolution of Hierarchical Urban Systems’
PART II EVOLUTIONARY ECONOMIC DYNAMICS
7. Richard M. Goodwin (1986), ‘The Economy as an Evolutionary Pulsator’
8. W. Brian Arthur (1989), ‘Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-in by Historical Events’
9. Richard H. Day and Jean-Luc Walter (1989), ‘Economic Growth in the Very Long Run: On the Multiple-phase Interaction of Population, Technology, and Social Infrastructure’
10. Dean Foster and Peyton Young (1990), ‘Stochastic Evolutionary Game Dynamics’
11. Kristian Lindgren (1997), ‘Evolutionary Dynamics in Game-Theoretic Models’
12. Ken Binmore and Larry Samuelson (1999), ‘Evolutionary Drift and Equilibrium Selection’
PART III ECOLOGIC-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
13. Dixon D. Jones and Carl J. Walters (1976), ‘Catastrophe Theory and Fisheries Regulation’
14. James E. Conklin and William C. Kolberg (1994), ‘Chaos For the Halibut?’
15. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., Carl Folke, Folke Günther, Heikki Isomaki, Charles Perrings and Tönu Puu (1994), ‘Discontinuous Change in Multilevel Hierarchical Systems’
16. Gardner Brown and Jonathan Roughgarden (1995), ‘An Ecological Economy: Notes on Harvest and Growth’
17. Zhiqi Chen (1997), ‘Can Economic Activities Lead to Climate Chaos? An Economic Analysis on Global Warming’
18. S.R. Carpenter, D. Ludwig and W.A. Brock (1999), ‘Management of Eutrophication for Lakes Subject to Potentially Irreversible Change’
19. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. (2001), ‘Complex Ecologic-Economic Dynamics and Environmental Policy’
Name Index
