Population Aging And The Generational Economy

‘While there already exists a crowded body of publications addressing the effect of an aging population on the economy, this monograph is most outstanding in presenting a global, in-depth analysis of the implications thereby generated for 23 developed and developing countries. . . Scholars, researchers, and practitioners everywhere will benefit immensely from this comprehensive work.’
– H.I. Liebling, Choice

‘Ron Lee and Andrew Mason’s Population Aging and the Generational Economy is a demographic and economic tour-de-force. Their collaborative, intercontinental. . . study of aging, consumption, labor supply, saving, and private and public transfers is the place to go to understand global aging and its myriad and significant economic challenges and opportunities.’
– Laurence Kotlikoff, Boston University, US

‘The culmination of. . . work by Lee, Mason, and their collaborators from around the world to extend Samuelson’s framework to accommodate realistic demography, empirical measurement of age-specific earnings, consumption, tax payments, and benefit receipts, the studies. . . demonstrate the power of this integrated economic-demographic framework to advance our understanding of critical public policy challenges faced by countries at different stages of demographic transition and population aging.’
– Robert Willis, University of Michigan, US

‘Lee and Mason have done scholars and practitioners a magnificent service by undertaking this comprehensive, compelling, and supremely innovative examination of the economic consequences of changes in population age structure. The book is a bona fide crystal ball. It will be a MUST READ for the next decade!’
– David Bloom, Harvard School of Public Health, US

‘Population Aging and the Generational Economy provides an encompassing account of what we know about population aging and the impact that this process will have on our economies. It does not confine itself to the advanced industrial countries, where aging has already been largely studied, but adopts a truly global perspective. I am sure it will become a key reference for researchers, students and those involved in policy-making in areas that are affected by population aging.’
– Giuliano Bonoli, Swiss Graduate School of Public Administration (IDHEAP), Switzerland

Over coming decades, changes in population age structure will have profound implications for the macroeconomy, influencing economic growth, generational equity, human capital, saving and investment, and the sustainability of public and private transfer systems. How the future unfolds will depend on key actors in the generational economy: governments, families, financial institutions, and others. This path-breaking book provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic effects of changes in population age structure across the globe.

The result of a substantial seven-year research project involving over 50 economists and demographers from Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the United States, the book draws on a new and comprehensive conceptual framework – National Transfer Accounts – to quantify the economic lifecycle and economic flows across generations. It presents comprehensive estimates of both public and private economic flows between generations, and emphasizes the global nature of changes in population age structure that are affecting rich and poor countries alike.

This unique and informative book will prove an invaluable reference tool for a wide-ranging audience encompassing students, researchers, and academics in fields such as demography, aging, public finance, economic development, macroeconomics, gerontology, and national income accounting; for policy-makers and advisers focusing on areas of the public sector such as education, health, pensions, other social security programs, tax policy, and public debt; and for policy analysts at international agencies such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the UN.

Contents:

Preface

PART I: FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES AND CONCEPTS
1. Population Aging and the Generational Economy: Key Findings
Andrew Mason and Ronald Lee

2. Theoretical Aspects of National Transfer Accounts
Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason

3. Introducing Age into National Accounts
Andrew Mason and Ronald Lee

4. Lifecycles, Support Systems, and Generational Flows: Patterns and Change
Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason

PART II: COMPARATIVE ANALYSES OF AGE AND THE MACROECONOMY
5. Labor Income Over the Lifecycle
Sang-Hyop Lee and Naohiro Ogawa

6. Consumption Over the Lifecycle: An International Comparison
An-Chi Tung

7. The Rise of the Intergenerational State: Aging and Development
Tim Miller

8. Private Transfers in Comparative Perspective
Ronald Lee and Gretchen Donehower

9. Asset-based Flows from a Generational Perspective
Andrew Mason, Naohiro Ogawa, Amonthep Chawla and Rikiya Matsukura

PART III: COUNTRY STUDIES OF AGE AND THE MACROECONOMY
A. Overviews of the Generational Economy
10. How Intergenerational Transfers Finance the Lifecycle Deficit in Spain
Concepció Patxot, Elisenda Rentería, Miguel Sánchez-Romero and Guadalupe Souto

11. National Transfer Accounts for Austria: Low Levels of Education and the Generosity of the Social Security System
Jože Sambt and Alexia Prskawetz

12. The Significance of Inter-age Economic Transfers in Chile
Jorge Bravo and Mauricio Holz

13. The Economic Lifecycle and Intergenerational Redistribution in Mexico
Iván Mejía-Guevara

14. National Transfer Accounts for Finland
Risto Vaittinen and Reijo Vanne

B. The Economic Lifecycle
15. The Changing Shape of the Economic Lifecycle in the United States, 1960 to 2003
Ronald Lee, Gretchen Donehower and Tim Miller

16. Labor Income and Consumption Profiles: The Case of Germany
Fanny A. Kluge

17. Slovenia: Independence and the Return to the Family of European Market Economies
Jože Sambt and Janez Malacic

18. Changes in Patterns of Philippine Lifecycle Consumption and Labor Income between 1994 and 2002
Rachel H. Racelis and J.M. Ian Salas

19. National Transfer Accounts for Kenya: The Economic Lifecycle in 1994
Germano Mwabu, Moses K. Muriithi and Reuben G. Mutegi

C. Systems of Intergenerational Flows
20. Intergenerational Resource Allocation in the Republic of Korea
Chong-Bum An, Young-Jun Chun, Eul-Sik Gim, Namhui Hwang and Sang-Hyop Lee

21. Idiosyncrasies of Intergenerational Transfers in Brazil
Cassio M. Turra, Bernardo L. Queiroz and Eduardo L.G. Rios-Neto

22. The Changing Patterns of China’s Public Services
Ling Li, Qiulin Chen and Yu Jiang

23. Intergenerational Redistribution in Sweden’s Public and Private Sectors
Daniel Hallberg, Thomas Lindh, Gustav Öberg and Charlotte Thulstrup

24. Public Transfer Flows between Generations in Uruguay
Marisa Bucheli and Cecilia González

25. The Structure of Generational Public Transfer Flows in Nigeria
Adedoyin Soyibo, Olanrewaju Olaniyan and Akanni O. Lawanson

26. The Role of Familial Transfers in Supporting the Lifecycle Deficit in India
Laishram Ladusingh and M.R. Narayana

D. Issues Related to the Generational Economy
27. The Elderly as Latent Assets in Aging Japan
Naohiro Ogawa, Rikiya Matsukura and Amonthep Chawla

28. Living Arrangements and Support for the Elderly in Taiwan
An-Chi Tung and Nicole Mun Sim Lai

29. Transfer Accounts in Costa Rica’s Mixed Economy Under Rapidly Changing Demographic Conditions
Luis Rosero-Bixby, Paola Zúñiga-Brenes and Andrea Collado

30. The Support System for Indonesian Elders: Moving Toward a Sustainable National Pension System
Maliki

31. Incorporating Time into the National Transfer Accounts: The Case of Thailand
Mathana Phananiramai

32. National Transfer Accounts in Hungary: Contribution Asset and Returns in a Pay-as-you-go Pension Scheme
Róbert I. Gál, Vera Gergely and Márton Medgyesi

PART IV: APPENDIX TABLES

Glossary

Index