Handbook Of Survey-Based Business Cycle Analysis

This Handbook aims to provide an overview of regular survey activities, as well as to show how survey results can be used scientifically in the context of business-cycle analysis and forecasting.

Examples of various business surveys are described in detail, starting with their objectives, the questions they pose, how they are weighted and extrapolated and the representativeness of their results. A detailed scientific examination of the explanatory value of the data is also made in order to demonstrate their potential usefulness. The Handbook has three parts: firstly, it presents the importance of business surveys for empirical research. Secondly, selected surveys are introduced in detail such as the Ifo Business Survey and the Ifo Investment Survey, and thirdly, a broad spectrum of studies – on the consequence of the survey results – is presented. The significance of the surveys applies equally to business cycle analysis and to forecasting. An array of modern methods of time series analysis and econometric model construction is used in these investigations.

This book will be of interest to an audience comprising members of institutions conducting business surveys, scientists using survey results to analyse and forecast business cycles, and students of empirical economic research.

Contents:

Introduction

PART I: PHENOMENON OF BUSINESS CYCLES
1. The Importance of Representative Surveys of Enterprises for
Empirically Oriented Business Cycle Research
Gernot Nerb

PART II: BUSINESS SURVEYS OF THE IFO INSTITUTE
2. Business Survey in Manufacturing
Wolfgang Ruppert

3. Business Survey in Services
Harald Blau

4. Investment Survey in Manufacturing
Annette Weichselberger

5. World Economic Survey
Anna Stangl

6. Innovation Survey
Horst Penzkofer

PART III: ANALYTICAL AND PROGNOSTIC SIGNIFICANCE OF
SURVEY DATA
7. Short-Term Industry Branch Forecasting Based on the Results of
the Ifo Business Survey
Georg Goldrian

8. The Significance of the Ifo Business Survey Data at the Regional
Level
Georg Goldrian

9. Suitability of WES Data for Forecasting Inflation
Sandra Hamella and Harry Haupt

10. Methods of Economic Forecasting and Business Cycle Indicators
Wolfgang Nierhaus and Jan-Egbert Sturm

11. Evaluation and Development of Composite Leading Indicators
Based on Harmonised Business and Consumer Surveys
Jürg D. Lindlbauer

12. A Leading Indicator Composed of Survey Data: Appropriate Construction and Prognostic Significance
Georg Goldrian

13. Can the Ifo Business Climate Indicator Improve Short-Term GDP
Forecasts?
Erich Langmantel

14. The Accuracy of Turning Point Predictions with the Ifo Business
Climate
Christian Hott, André Kunkel and Gernot Nerb

15. A Leading Indicator for Equipment Investment
Joachim Gürtler

16. Ifo Survey on Employment Plans: Sectoral Evaluation
Klaus Abberger

17. On the Methodology of Business Cycle Analysis
Stefan Mittnik and Klaus Wohlrabe

Index